November 14, 2011

Blue Army: Theory and Doctrine

Global War on Disinformation

(Michael Sandel, Justice: Free To Choose, February 2011)

(Michael Sandel, Justice: What's A Fair Start?, February 2011)

John Rawls (1921 – 2002):
Those who have been favored by nature, whoever they are, may gain from their good fortune, only on terms that improve the situation of those who have lost out.

Margaret Thatcher (1925 – 2013):
There is no such thing as society.
There are individual men and women, and there are families. …
It's our duty to look after ourselves and then, also to look after our neighbour.
[There] is no such thing as an entitlement unless someone has first met an obligation.

Ayn Rand (1905 – 1982):
There is no such entity as the tribe or the public.
The tribe, or society, is only a number of individual men.
Nothing can be good for the tribe as such.
Good and value pertain only to … an individual living organism, not to a disembodied aggregate of relationships.

Alexis de Tocqueville (1805 – 59):
When all the members of a community are independent of, or indifferent to, each other, the cooperation of each of them can only be obtained by paying for it; this infinitely multiplies the purposes to which wealth may be applied, and increases its value. …
Men are no longer bound together by ideas, but by interests; and it would seem as if human opinions were reduced to a sort of intellectual dust, scattered on every side, unable to collect, unable to cohere.
(Democracy in America, 1835-40, Bantam, 2011, pp 461 & 516)

Thomas Paine (1737 – 1809):
[Government,] even in its best state, is but a necessary evil …
(Common Sense, 1776)

Ronald Reagan (1911 – 2004):
Government is not the solution …
Government is the problem. …

I continue to look to the Scriptures … for fulfilment and for guidance.
Indeed, it is an incontrovertible fact, that all the complex and horrendous questions confronting us at home, and worldwide, have their answer in that single Book. …

Edmund Burke (1729 – 97):
To … love the little platoon we belong to, in society, is the first principle (the germ as it were) of public affections.
It is the first link in the series by which we proceed towards a love
  • to our country, and
  • to mankind.

Ralph Emerson (1803 – 82):
Do not tell me, as a good man did to-day, of my obligation to put all poor men in good situations.
Are they my poor?
I tell thee, thou foolish philanthropist, that I grudge the dollar, the dime, the cent, I give to such men as do not belong to me and to whom I do not belong.
(Self-Reliance, Essays: First Series, 1841)

Alexis de Tocqueville (1805 – 59):
It is both necessary and desirable that the government of a democratic people should be active and powerful.
[Our] object should not be to render it weak or indolent, but solely to prevent it from abusing its aptitude and its strength.
(Democracy in America, 1835, p 867)

November 2, 2011

Green Army: Theory and Doctrine

Global War on Disinformation

Robert Brulle [Sociologist, Drexel University]:
There is no statistical relationship between providing [scientific] information about climate change and levels of public concern. …
[What we really] need to focus on [are the elite cues: opinion leaders] coming to some sort of agreement that climate change is real [and] that we need to address it — before you’re going to see [any change in] public opinion …
(Inside the Climate Change “Countermovement", background interview for Climate of Doubt, PBS Frontline, 30 September, 2012)

George Marshall (1964):
In 2012 … global investment in renewable energy [reached] $244 billion [while] investment into exploration and development of new [oil and gas] reserves broke the $1 trillion barrier.
(Don't Even Think About It, 2014, p 174)

The Expert Consensus on Climate Change

In recent years, two studies have measured the level of agreement of human-caused warming in the scientific community. …

The first analysis of this type was by Naomi Oreskes, who in 2004 analysed publications in the Web of Science between 1993 and 2003 matching the search term 'global climate change'.
She found that out of 928 papers, none rejected the consensus position that humans are causing global warming.
Our paper builds upon this research.

We expanded the search to cover the 21 years from 1991 to 2011.
In addition to 'global climate change' papers, we also included papers matching the term 'global warming'.
This expanded the number of papers to over 12,000. …
Each abstract was [then] classified according to whether it explicitly or implicitly endorsed or rejected human-caused global warming, or whether it took no position on the cause of warming.

Out of the 12,000 papers, we identified just over 4,000 stating a position on human-caused global warming.
Among these 4,000 papers, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming.

In the second phase of our study, we asked the scientists who authored the studies to rate their own papers.
1,200 scientists responded to our invitation, so that just over 2,000 papers in total received a self-rating.
Among the papers that were self-rated as stating a position on human-caused warming, 97.2% endorsed the consensus. …

However, there is a significant gap between public perception and the actual 97% consensus.
When a US representative sample was asked how many scientists agree that humans are causing global warming, the average answer was around 50%. …

When people correctly understand that the scientists agree on human-caused global warming, they're more likely to support policy that mitigates climate change.
This consensus gap is directly linked to a lack of public support for climate action.
This underscores the importance of clearly communicating the consensus and closing the consensus gap.

(John Cook, Video Abstract, Environment Research Letters, 2013)